Supercritical Geothermal – Tapping into the Next Geothermal Frontier
Supercritical geothermal (SCGT) resources have the potential to meet a significant portion of New Zealand’s future energy needs while helping to meet climate policy commitments.
Based on GNS Science’s research, Castalia’s economic analysis found that supercritical geothermal could supply up to 30,000 GWh of electricity per year, at least three times the current output of conventional geothermal. Supercritical geothermal can also deliver the trifecta of low-cost, zero-emissions, and reliable electricity with minimal land requirements. By reinjecting extracted gases underground, SCGT systems could operate essentially as zero-emission plants.
SCGT also offers efficient green heat for industrial uses like dairy processing and wood pellet production for use as low-carbon solid fuel.
Our analysis suggests that grid-connected supercritical geothermal electricity generation could become a reality by 2037. This ambitious timeline requires advancements in research and development (R&D) and strategic policy support in the near term. Castalia’s modeling indicates SCGT could provide either 1365 or 2050 MW of new renewable capacity post-2037, depending on whether thermal generation is permitted. Under a thermal generation permitted scenario, SCGT could make up a substantial portion of new generation capacity even when competing with the lowest-cost wind and solar energy projects.
To achieve the 2037 goal, we recommend policymakers recognize SCGT’s immense potential for affordable decarbonization and consider granting environmental consent for exploratory wells. Proactive collaboration between research institutions, mana whenua and landowners, private sector energy companies, and government agencies is vital to spurring the timely investments in innovation needed to tap into this next-generation renewable resource.
Access the full report here: Economic-Value-of-Supercritical-Geothermal.pdf
UPDATE: The New Zealand Government committed up to $60 million to explore the potential of supercritical geothermal. GNS Science and the Ministry of Business, Innovation & Employment will lead the initiative.
Access our slide deck, presented to GNS Science, mana whenua representatives, private sector investors, and energy experts during the New Zealand Geothermal Workshop: Supercritical-Geothermal-Presentation.pdf
Find more information about the ‘Geothermal: Next Generation‘ project led by GNS Science.
